Strategic Donkey identifies the most important election races for Democrats to win in order for the party to advance its platforms at the national level. For the 2020 election, the focus is on flipping the Senate to a Democratic majority. We have ranked the key Senate candidates in order of which campaigns will benefit most from your support. Learn more about the role of money and volunteering in elections.
Note, no financial transactions are made through Strategic Donkey as we are not affiliated, endorsed, or compensated by any political entity. Learn more about Strategic Donkey.
Candidate Rankings
LAST UPDATED 11/02/2020
Ranking updates will be made often as new polls and financial data become available.
Rankings are based on the latest state poll data from RealClearPolitics (RCP) and other polls, and most recently published fundraising data from the Center for Responsive Politics, including cash on hand and outside spending. Poll quality descriptions are based on FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Rankings. Learn more about cash on hand, outside spending and polling.
1. Jon Ossoff, Georgia
Challenging incumbent Senator David Perdue (R-GA)
Polling
UP 0.7%
Source: RCP
DOWN 2% to UP 1%
Source: Highly regarded Emerson College poll and decently regarded Landmark Communications poll
Fundraising
Jon Ossoff
$4.20 million cash on hand
$40.0 million outside spending
David Perdue
$5.84 million cash on hand
$67.1 million outside spending
Summary
Ossoff has been slowly closing in on Perdue and we are now rather consistently seeing him up over Perdue, albeit by a small margin. This race is definitely winnable; however, in Georgia if neither candidate gets 50% or more of the vote, the election goes to a runoff in January. The Libertarian candidate in Georgia is polling around 2-4%, making this a real possibility, and further highlighting the importance of voter turnout. Both Ossoff and Perdue have had an influx of outside spending, but Perdue has much more outside spending support compared to Ossoff. Donations and volunteering, especially focused on voter turnout, could help Ossoff win this election.
2. Theresa Greenfield, Iowa
Challenging incumbent Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA)
Polling
DOWN 2.0%
Source: RCP
DOWN 4% to UP 3%
Source: Highly regarded Emerson College poll and Selzer & Co. poll
Fundraising
Theresa Greenfield
$3.77 million cash on hand
$94.5 million outside spending
Joni Ernst
$2.49 million cash on hand
$74.1 million outside spending
Summary
Greenfield’s lead has trended downward recently with RCP’s average showing her down 2% against Ernst for the first time in weeks. Flipping this seat blue is critical to Senate control if another anticipated seat flip does not pan out (e.g. Cal Cunningham, Sara Gideon). Fortunately, Greenfield has more cash on hand and $20 million more in outside spending support. Considering this, Greenfield would benefit most from volunteer support.
3. Sara Gideon, Maine
Challenging incumbent Senator Susan Collins (R-ME)
Polling
UP 6%
Source: Highly regarded Emerson College poll
UP 2%
Source: Highly regarded SurveyUSA poll
Fundraising
Sara Gideon
$20.7 million cash on hand
$58.4 million outside spending
Susan Collins
$4.43 million cash on hand
$48.8 million outside spending
Summary
This is a must-win seat to flip the Senate and Gideon’s polling lead has diminished significantly the past several weeks. Maine has an interesting electoral process where a candidate must reach 50% of total votes to win, coupled with a ranked-choice voting process. That means voters indicate their first, second, and third choice (or more) vote for a candidate. If no candidate crosses the 50% threshold, those that voted for a third party as their first choice, will have their vote added to their second choice candidate (or third choice if still no candidate gets to 50%). The polling indicates this process favors Gideon over Collins, which may be a deciding factor in this race. Gideon’s has a ludicrous amount of cash on hand for the final days of the election, and $10 million more in outside spending support. Volunteering to get out the vote, especially among young voters, could help Gideon secure this race.
4. Governor Steve Bullock, Montana
Challenging incumbent Senator Steve Daines (R-MT)
Polling
UP 1%
Source: Well regarded partisan Public Policy Polling poll
UP 1%
Source: Decently regarded Montana State Univ., Billings poll
Fundraising
Steve Bullock
$4.08 million cash on hand
$58.1 million outside spending
Steve Daines
$1.75 million cash on hand
$48.2 million outside spending
Summary
High quality polls out of Montana are hard to come by and the most recent polls show the race is in a statistical tie. In the Montana State Univ. poll, independents prefer Bullock by 16% over Daines, which bodes well for him. Additionally, 5% of voters remain undecided, a large amount at this stage in the race that will likely decide the outcome considering the race is so tight. Bullock has had an influx of cash recently with more than double the amount of cash on hand as Daines, which should be sufficient in the final days of this race. Bullock has a real shot at flipping this seat blue. His campaign would benefit most from volunteering.
5. Cal Cunningham, North Carolina
Challenging incumbent Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC)
Polling
UP 2.2%
Source: RCP
UP 2-3%
Source: Highly regarded Emerson College poll and decently regarded Ipsos poll
Fundraising
Cal Cunningham
$886 thousand cash on hand
$114 million outside spending
Thom Tillis
$3.50 million cash on hand
$100 million outside spending
Summary
This is a must-win seat to flip the Senate. Cunningham’s lead trended downward significantly since the news of his sex scandal broke but he seems to be regaining his support and is narrowly up over Tillis. Republicans are reinvigorated in their hopes of keeping this seat red and Cunningham has significantly less cash on hand compared to Tillis, which may not be sufficient in the final days of this race. Cunningham would benefit from campaign donations and volunteering.
6. Barbara Bollier, Kansas
Challenging Congressman Marshall (R-KS)
Polling
UP 1%
Source: Decently regarded Democratic partisan GBAO poll
DOWN 4%
Source: Unranked VCreek/AMG poll
Fundraising
Barbara Bollier
$4.81 million cash on hand
$16.5 million outside spending
Roger Marshall
$1.43 million cash on hand
$30.5 million outside spending
Summary
There isn’t the highest quality batch of recent polls in this race, making it hard to predict. However, in the GBAO poll, they found 20% of Republicans were going for Bollier. That is a huge cross-party margin not seen in any other races we are tracking. Unfortunately, the VCreek/AMG poll shows a different story, with Marshall gaining ground with all voters across the spectrum of political ideology. This underscores that there is a lot of uncertainty in this race. There’s been a large influx of outside spending supporting Marshall, but Bollier still has significantly more cash on hand. Considering Bollier’s comfortable financial state, volunteering to get out the vote would benefit her campaign most.
7. Al Gross, Alaska
Challenging incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK)
Polling
DOWN 3%
Source: Well regarded partisan Public Policy Polling poll
DOWN 3%
Source: Less regarded Gravis Marketing poll
Fundraising
Al Gross
$2.99 million cash on hand
$18.1 million outside spending
Dan Sullivan
$2.14 million cash on hand
$8.90 million outside spending
Summary
This is a difficult race to predict as there are few quality polls in Alaska. However, independents are leaning towards Gross (who is technically independent but won Alaska’s Democratic primary). Additionally, in the Gravis Marketing poll, Gross is down but within the margin of error and 7% of voters remain undecided. Sullivan won his 2014 race by 6,000 votes in a year Republicans won big in the House and Senate, indicating this race is flippable. Fortunately, Gross has a slight cash on hand edge and there’s been an influx of outside spending mostly supporting Gross. Volunteering and campaign donations could help Gross win this race.
8. Jaime Harrison, South Carolina
Challenging incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
Polling
DOWN 2%
Source: Decently regarded East Carolina University poll
DOWN 2%
Source: Decently regarded Morning Consult poll
Fundraising
Jaime Harrison
$3.48 million cash on hand
$16.6 million outside spending
Lindsey Graham
$7.33 million cash on hand
$28.5 million outside spending
Summary
This race is definitely still a toss up but not looking good for Harrison. Both polls are within the margin of error; however, the most recent polling (including those not captured above) more consistently shows Harrison down compared to a few weeks ago when he was sometimes polling above Graham. To make matters worse, Graham has more than double the cash on hand and almost double the outside spending support compared to Harrison. Considering this, campaign donations and volunteering would benefit Harrison to win this election.
9. MJ Hegar, Texas
Challenging incumbent Senator John Cornyn
Polling
DOWN 6.8%
Source: RCP
DOWN 5%
Source: Highly regarded Emerson College poll
Fundraising
MJ Hegar
$6.86 million cash on hand
$27.4 million outside spending
John Cornyn
$3.80 million cash on hand
$12.0 million outside spending
Summary
This is definitely a long shot race for Democrats to win. The latest polls show Hegar has gotten closer to Cornyn’s lead, but still down and outside the margin of error. However, there’s been massive voter turnout in Texas, with early voting already exceeding total ballots cast in 2016. That could be a sign that Cornyn is in for a surprise upset in this election. Fortunately, Hegar has a lot of cash on hand and an influx of outside spending support the past week. Volunteering to get out the vote among young and minority voters could help Hegar win this race.
10. Senator Gary Peters, Michigan
Challenged by John James
Polling
UP 5.5%
Source: RCP
UP 5-6%
Source: Highly regarded Emerson College poll and decently regarded Morning Consult poll
Fundraising
Gary Peters
$3.87 million cash on hand
$49.0 million outside spending
John James
$6.21 million cash on hand
$46.9 million outside spending
Summary
This race has been considered safe by Democrats but there have been signs it is closer than anticipated. The Democrats must retain this seat or their chances at flipping the Senate become greatly diminished. The most recent batch of polls show this race is leaning back towards Peters, which wasn’t the case a few weeks ago. However, James has almost double Peter’s cash on hand, which does not bode well for Peters. Donations and volunteering could help Peters secure a win.
11. Mark Kelly, Arizona
Challenging incumbent Senator Martha McSally (R-AZ)
Polling
UP 6.2%
Source: RCP
UP 6-9%
Source: Highly regarded Marist College poll and decently regarded Ipsos poll
Fundraising
Mark Kelly
$11.0 million cash on hand
$39.5 million outside spending
Martha McSally
$9.11 million cash on hand
$42.7 million outside spending
Summary
This seat has been considered one of the most likely Senate seats to flip in 2020. However, Kelly’s lead has diminished in the last few weeks. RCP’s polling average had Kelly up 11.3% on Sep. 10th, compared to its current average at 6.2%. Additionally, there has been an influx of outside spending support for McSally. That being said, Kelly is in a comfortable financial position. Volunteering to get out the vote could help Kelly secure this race.
12. Senator Doug Jones, Alabama
Challenged by Tommy Tuberville
Polling
DOWN 12%
Source: Decently regarded Morning Consult poll
DOWN 12%
Source: Well regarded Data for Progress poll
Fundraising
Doug Jones
$4.01 million cash on hand
$375 thousand outside spending
Tommy Tuberville
$1.50 million cash on hand
$3.20 million outside spending
Summary
This seat has been assumed to flip Republican for months. The polls are in agreement with that assumption, showing Jones down double digits compared to Tuberville. Jones has significantly more money than Tuberville. Holding this seat blue in deep red Alabama seems unlikely, but there is a chance. Considering Jones’ comfortable financial position, his campaign would benefit most from volunteering support.
13. Amy McGrath, Kentucky
Challenging incumbent Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell
Polling
DOWN 10%
Source: Well regarded Cygnal poll
DOWN 11%
Source: Decently regarded Morning Consult poll
Fundraising
Amy McGrath
$14.8 million cash on hand
$16.0 million outside spending
Mitch McConnell
$11.8 million cash on hand
$13.3 million outside spending
Summary
Flipping deep red Kentucky and unseating the most powerful person in the Senate is unlikely, but there’s a very small chance of this happening if there was a blue tsunami. McGrath is a very effective fundraiser. We recommend saving your money on this long shot candidate. Volunteering to get out the vote could help McGrath win.
14. John Hickenlooper, Colorado
Challenging incumbent Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO)
Polling
UP 8%
Source: Decently regarded Morning Consult poll
UP 9%
Source: Decently regarded Data for Progress poll
Fundraising
John Hickenlooper
$4.11 million cash on hand
$15.3 million outside spending
Cory Gardner
$4.22 million cash on hand
$20.7 million outside spending
Summary
This is a must-win seat to flip the Senate. Hickenlooper is consistently in the lead in the polls and pulled in a massive $22.6 million in Q3. He has outspent Gardner significantly, resulting in almost equivalent cash on hand totals. Both Democratic and Republican committees have pulled ad buys in Colorado, indicating they both consider this race safe for Hickenlooper. Save your money and time on this race and support candidates in closer races.